Early 2028 poll shows Duterte in front, Robredo closing in

Just two years before the next presidential elections, former Vice President Leni Robredo remains a strong contender against presidential frontrunner and Vice President Sara Duterte in the 2028 elections, with four in 10 Filipinos saying they would vote for the Naga City mayor in a two-way race.

At the same time, Senator Erwin Tulfo is emerging as a strong vice-presidential bet, with five out of 10 Filipinos saying they would vote for him in the 2028 elections.  

These findings are according to a recent Pulse Asia survey commissioned by the Stratbase Group – its first commissioned survey in relation to the 2028 elections – conducted May 3-7, 2026 with a sample size of 1,500 and a nationwide margin of error of +/-2.5. 

This comes as Filipinos expressed an exceptionally high level of interest in the upcoming 2028 elections even two years early.  

Approximately 83 percent of respondents say they were interested in the polls, with 61 percent identifying as “truly interested.”  

Engagement is particularly high among Class E voters (92 percent) and in Visayas (90 percent) and Mindanao (96 percent). Only 7 percent said they were disinterested in the polls, while 9 percent cannot say whether they are interested or disinterested. 

Closing the gap 

The survey showed that Duterte held a 10-point lead nationally in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, with 51 percent compared to Robredo’s 41 percent.

Meanwhile, eight percent said they remained undecided or refused to say who they would vote for. 

The vice president’s lead, noted Stratbase Group founder Prof. Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit, was largely due to her base support from Mindanao, where she holds a 91 percent preference rate compared to Robredo’s 7 percent.  

He added that while Duterte’s strong showing in Mindanao was not surprising, the results suggested that should Robredo run for President, the gap could be narrowed by improving her numbers in the region and winning over undecided voters.

“Historically, no presidential candidate sustains numbers as high as 91 percent throughout an entire national campaign,” Manhit said. 

“What this survey also underscores is the importance of building a solid and united opposition. The presidential race two-way contest to win an absolute majority mandate for the Presidency,” he added.  

The Stratbase-commissioned survey also showed that Robredo has neutralized Duterte’s lead in the National Capital Region, where the two were now in a statistical dead heat with Duterte’s 48 percent compared to Robredo’s 46 percent.  

The Naga City mayor has also established a commanding lead in Balance Luzon, where she outpaces the vice president by 22 percentage points (55 percent versus 33 percent).  

In the Visayas, Duterte holds a slim lead at 50 percent compared to Robredo’s 46 percent. 

Vice presidential candidates  

For the vice presidential race, Tulfo leads nationally with 46 percent compared to Sen. Robinhood Padilla’s 38 percent. Tulfo has secured majority support in NCR (54 percent), Balance Luzon (52 percent), and the Visayas (63 percent).  

In another potential matchup against Senator Bong Go, Tulfo remains highly competitive with 42 percent compared to Go’s 47 percent, whose 5-point lead was also due to the Mindanao vote. Tulfo however maintained his leads in Balance Luzon (52 percent versus 30 percent) and the Visayas (49 percent versus 46 percent).  

Tulfo’s appeal is also strongest among Class E voters, where he secured 51 percent against Go’s 44 percent.  

On another survey question on the trust ratings of select popular political figures, Tulfo enjoyed the highest trust rating among them at 63 percent.  

Go ranked second at 57 percent, with Robredo following closely behind at 53 percent. Padilla got 46 percent while Baste Duterte got 37 percent.  

Manhit said these figures indicated that the Tulfo name carried resonance in the upcoming polls and that “if the opposition and reform-oriented blocs can rally behind a unified ticket, these figures show there is a credible pathway toward consolidating the anti-Duterte vote into a competitive national coalition.” 

Other factors to consider 

The same survey also showed that the internet remained a key battleground to shape electoral discourse as it topped the list of Filipinos’ sources of news (83 percent), followed by television at 64 percent.  

Meanwhile, 31 percent of respondents said they relied on family and relatives to get news, while 27 percent said they got their news from the radio. Only 3 percent said they got their news from the newspapers.  

“The battle for public opinion in 2028 will be fought largely online. Candidates and political movements that fail to engage voters in the digital space risk losing relevance, especially among younger and highly connected Filipinos,” Manhit warned. 

“At the same time, the continued influence of television, family networks, and radio reminds us that campaigns must still communicate across multiple platforms and communities if they hope to build a truly national constituency,” he added.